PEAK: How Pandora’s Lunchbox Works

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Explains how Pandora’s Lunchbox decides what effects to apply and typical results from using it.

 

Simplified

  1. Clear All Existing Status Effects
    All existing status effects (Cold, Hot, Poison, Drowsy, Injury, Hunger) are cleared to 0.
  2. Rolls a value to set as the ‘effect budget’, like creating the size of a“status pie”
    Chaos makes one roll to decide the total pool of status points it must hand out.
    • Small pies and very large pies are possible, but most rolls land somewhere in the middle.
  3. Possible effects
    Cold or Hot, Poison, Drowsy, Injury, Hunger
  4. Slice and assign the pie
    • Chaos rolls a slice size.
      • A big slice quickly eats the pie (fewer, stronger effects).
      • Several small slices create more, lighter effects.
    • The slice is applied to a random effect still in the pool.
    • That effect is removed from the pool. If Cold is chosen, Hot is also removed (and vice-versa), so you can never receive both.
    • Repeat until the pie is gone or the leftovers drop below 0.05.

    Result: a large pie can end up as a few heavy afflictions or many lighter ones—purely determined by those slice rolls.

  5. Stamina bonus
    Chaos makes a separate roll for extra stamina. On average you gain roughly a third of a bar, but zero or a full bar are both possible.

Typical Results

How much total affliction is applied?

  • On average, you’ll get about 41% of your status bar filled with random status effects.
  • Half the time, this value will be somewhere between 20% and 60%.

How many distinct effects are applied?

  • You can expect about 2 effects on average, and usually between 1 to 3.
  • Occasionally, it can be zero or up to the maximum of 5.

How much of each effect is applied on average/b]

  • Each individual effect will take up about 21% of the status bar on average.
  • Half the time, a single effect’s intensity will be between roughly 9% and 28%.

 

Monte-Carlo Sim, 100k activations
Metric
Mean
Middle 50 % (25-75 %)
Total affliction applied (% share of the bar)
0.410 ± 0.27
0.20 – 0.60
Slices / “chunks” added
1.91 ± 1.10
1 – 3
Distinct effects applied
1.91 ± 1.10
1 – 3
Per-effect intensity
0.209 ± 0.17
0.093 – 0.284

 

Stamina Bonus Calculation

Bonus Stamina Percent Added
Probability
0.00 – 0.10
11 %
0.10 – 0.20
15 %
0.20 – 0.30
18 %
0.30 – 0.40
18 %
0.40 – 0.50
15 %
0.50 – 0.60
11 %
0.60 – 0.70
7 %
0.70 – 0.80
4 %
0.80 – 0.90
1.6 %
0.90 – 1.00
0.6 %

Detailed Example

1. Roll a total “status budget”
Action
Result
Draw from N( 0.40, 0.30² )
0.3568
Clamp to [0 … 1]
0.3568

So you have 0.3568 status-points to hand out.

 

2. Set up the status pool
{ Cold, Hot, Poison, Drowsy, Injury, Hunger }

 

3. Chunking loop

Keep looping while budget ≥ 0.05 and the pool isn’t empty.

Loop
Draw multiplier (N 0.30, 0.50²)
Chunk size (total × multiplier)
Chosen effect
Pool after pick
Notes
1
0.2135
0.3568 × 0.2135 ≈ 0.0762
Poison (random index)
{ Cold, Hot, Drowsy, Injury, Hunger }
Budget left → 0.2806
2
0.3088
0.2806 × 0.3088 ≈ 0.1102
Cold
Cold is removed, and Hot is also removed (mutual exclusion) → { Drowsy, Injury, Hunger }
Budget left → 0.1704
3
0.5740
0.1704 × 0.5740 ≈ 0.0978, but only 0.1704 remains → 0.1704
Hunger
{ Drowsy, Injury }
Budget left → 0.0000 (loop stops)

Stop condition reached: remaining budget < 0.05.
Final debuff amounts applied

Effect
Amount
Poison
0.0762
Cold
0.1102
Hunger
0.1704

 

4. Roll the stamina bonus
Action
Result
Draw from N( 0.30, 0.25² )
0.2816
Clamp to [0 … 1]
0.2816 extra stamina

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