R.E.P.O. – Cosmetic Boxes Spawn Mechanics

In R.E.P.O., cosmetic box spawn rates and their rarity chances scale directly with how deep you go into your run.

As you progress through the levels, three main things happen:

• The base chance for a box to spawn increases.
• The chance to get higher rarity boxes increases.
• You eventually gain the ability to spawn multiple boxes per level (up to 3).

The game also features a bad luck multiplier that increases your spawn odds at the end of a level if you complete it without finding a box (which even persists through a game over).

Levels 1-5: Single Box Spawns
For the first five levels, the game rolls for one potential cosmetic box. The base spawn chance starts at 20% and goes up by 8% each level.
If the box succesfully spawns, the game rolls for a rarity:
Common (Green), Uncommon (Blue), Rare (Pink), Ultra Rare (Yellow).

Box #1 spawn chances and rarity chances for levels 1-5:

Level 6
Once you hit level 6, your first box reaches its maximum possible odds. At this point, the game begins rolling for a second box, which starts back at the level 1 odds and scales up level by level.

Box #1, #2 spawn chances and rarity chances for level 6:

As you can see above, Box #2 has the same odds on level 6 as Box #1 had on level 1, and this continues, which means Box #2 on level 7 will have the same odds as Box #1 did on level 2 and so on. This goes on until level 11, where Box #2 has the max odds and a third box rolls in.
See below:

Box #1, #2, #3 spawn chances and rarity chances for level 11:

Then again, the same thing applies to Box #3; it follows the same pattern of chances as Box #1 and Box #2. So, on level 11, Box #3 has the same spawn chances that Box #1 had on level 1; Box #3 on level 12 has the same spawn chances as Box #1 has on level 2 and so on.

And finally, on level 16 all 3 boxes have the max spawn and rarity chances.
No more new boxes are added after level 16.

Box #1, #2, #3 spawn chances and rarity chances for level 16+:

R. E. P. O. has a bad luck multiplier, aka. a pity system to ensure you don’t go too long without getting a cosmetic box to spawn.

Here’s how it works:
Every time you complete a level and no cosmetic box spawns, the game adds a +20% chance on top of the base chance of spawning a box on your next level.
For example:
On level 1 (20% chance), no box spawned, which now means that on level 2 you have a 28% chance PLUS the 20% bad luck multiplier, so a 48% chance of a cosmetic box getting spawned.

Persistence:
This mechanic is very important.
If you were to leave after completing level 1 and then start a new save file, the bad luck modifier persists across all saves.
That means on the new save you’d have a 40% chance (20% base chance + 20% bad luck multiplier) of getting a cosmetic box on level 1 because you didn’t get one on the previous save.

Resetting:
After the game successfully rolls for a cosmetic box (it spawns on your level), the bad luck modifier is instantly set to +0%.
This is important because if you’re, for example, on level 6, which means that two cosmetic boxes can spawn, and let’s say you didn’t get a box on the previous level, you now have a +20% bad luck multiplier.
At first the game applies that modifier ONLY to Box #1: 60% spawn chance + 20% modifier = 80% spawn chance.
If that chance succeeds, the game RESETS the modifier.
Because of that, Box #2 will not have a 40% chance due to the modifier; it will only have its base chance of 20%.
Another example:
If you were extremely unlucky and rolled 0 boxes on level 16, then on level 17 you were even more unlucky, and Box #1 didn’t spawn (80% chance of spawning), but Box #2 did spawn (also 80% chance of spawning). The bad luck modifier is reset, and Box #3 has its default 60% spawn chance.